Largest SF transit operators paint dire financial picture

San Fran government transportation has only reclaimed 40-70% of previous ridership.  Yet they are spending as if are at 110%.  San Fran has an over $800 million deficit.  The government school’s deficit is over $400 million—both are growing.  The government trains and buses?  This is their future:

““Those changes have significantly impacted the budget of many transit operators, creating the need for transit agencies to reimagine how their services are funded with less reliance on traditional funding sources like fares and general funds,” he said, pointing to remote work and other changes in residents’ travel behavior as the primary drivers behind these recovery trends.

Reyes said regional, state and federal relief have plugged holes in the agency’s budgets amid those changes, but the expiration of those funds have left the three expecting a combined shortfall of about $700 million in the 2027 fiscal year. Service cuts will have to follow if they can’t close those gaps, officials with the agency said.”

Maybe government needs to sell these assets and let a private firm operate them.  It is obvious, if the managers of the transportation system were in private firms, they would have been fired years ago.

Largest SF transit operators paint dire financial picture

By James Salazar | SF Examiner, 9/24/24  https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/transit/bart-caltrain-muni-approaching-dire-financial-precipice/article_e99023ec-7ac3-11ef-abde-4beca0835e02.html

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Officials from three of the largest transit agencies operating in San Francisco said Tuesday that time is of the essence to determine the best ways to close a forthcoming combined $700 million budgetary shortfall while preserving service.

Representatives from BART, Caltrain and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency spoke in Tuesday front of the San Francisco County Transportation Authority board, telling members they have recovered between 40% and 70% of pre-pandemic ridership.

Martin Reyes, the SFCTA’s principal transportation planner in government affairs, said “ridership is really varied from operator to operator.”

“Those changes have significantly impacted the budget of many transit operators, creating the need for transit agencies to reimagine how their services are funded with less reliance on traditional funding sources like fares and general funds,” he said, pointing to remote work and other changes in residents’ travel behavior as the primary drivers behind these recovery trends.

Reyes said regional, state and federal relief have plugged holes in the agency’s budgets amid those changes, but the expiration of those funds have left the three expecting a combined shortfall of about $700 million in the 2027 fiscal year. Service cuts will have to follow if they can’t close those gaps, officials with the agency said.

“If some or all BART riders were to switch to driving, where much of the impact would be felt in San Francisco, the effects would impact everybody in the region, not just transit riders,” BART assistant general manager Pam Herhold said.

Prior to the pandemic, Herhold said BART riders accounted for one-fourth of all miles traveled on public transit within the entire state. Although some riders have returned, many aren’t boarding trains nearly as frequently. That has ramifications for other agencies, she said, with 90% of trips transferring between services involving at least one leg on BART.

Bree Mawhorter, SFMTA’s chief financial officer, said the agency has used its pandemic-assistance funds wisely. She said the money runs out in the 2026-27 fiscal year, which is going to result in a projected loss of over $200 million per year. The exact number will depend upon The City’s economic health, as well as that of the state.

Mawhorter said the SFMTA is concentrating on increasing ridership by making Muni service fast, frequent, reliable and clean, while also making sure its existing riders pay. The agency hired 36 additional fare inspectors, as Mawhorter said that fare compliance “has both a revenue impact” and “an impact on the perception of the value of Muni and the value of transportation.”

Caltrain and BART officials said Tuesday that, before the pandemic, rider fares covered the vast majority of the agencies’ respective operating costs. Now, Caltrain is covering 22% of its expenses with train fares, according to agency chief of staff Casey Fromson. She added that Caltrain faces an average operating deficit of about $77 million each year should those trends continue.

“The service model is what’s changed so dramatically for us,” Fromson said. “People are not commuting five days a week.”

Herhold, BART’s assistant general manager, echoed those sentiments when she said COVID-19 “turned BART’s long-standing healthy financial model completely on its head, and now passenger revenues cover less than a quarter of operating expenses.”

Muni staff have worked with elected officials to establish a working group, which will help SFMTA find local solutions to its funding challenges. Transportation officials have also been trying to build a consensus among Bay Area transit operators for a regional transportation revenue measure. Transportation officials said they want to adopt a framework that could be given to state legislators at the beginning of the 2025 season.

“I think people want to gravitate towards one single idea that’s going to solve the whole problem,” Mawhorter said. “But in this case, we’re really going to have to build a sandwich of ideas that pile on top of one another to solve a gap that is this large.”

Reyes, the SFCTA planner, emphasized that the ramifications for San Francisco’s largest transit agencies extend far beyond The City’s borders.

“This isn’t just a challenge for transit agencies. It’s really a challenge for everyone in the region,” he said. “We know we can’t achieve San Francisco’s or the region’s goals without transit. Climate, equity, economy, housing all depend on having transit thrive in the Bay Area.”