Eber: The day the music died

“American Pie”  is one of my favorite songs.  It explains the end of an era. The song tells a story about how these were and how they are going to change.

America, with this election, is seeing a transformation of the voting public.  Hispanics, blacks and young people are moving toward Trump and the GOP.  Black men are moving in large numbers to Trump. 

I had thought the Goldwater election, then the Reagan election was going to be transformative.  Wrong.

It has taken a radical Democrat Party to create Donald Trump–and the public is turning away from the Progressives.

“The Silent Majority:  Richard Nixon’s favorite constituency will likely determine the outcome this November.  Because of the onslaught of anti-Trump propaganda in the mass media along with peer pressure from liberal Democrats, many voters have hidden their true feelings. It has been postulated the so called Silent Majority led to Donald Trumps victory in 2016 and defeat 4 years later.  

How they vote this time around is yet to be determined.”

I think the November 5 election will surprise the pollsters—who were wrong in 2016 and 2020.

The day the music died by Richard Eber

Richard Eber, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views,  10/3/24  www.capoliticalnewsandviews.com

At a dinner party last weekend, I decided to use the mostly middle class couples In attendance to be a focus group for a column I was planning to write about the upcoming Presidential election.

Things got off to good start when I queried them about issues important to them.  Concern about inflation, that has reduced spending power during the Biden-Harris administration, was the most mentioned topic.

Just below the these two came foreign policy where Biden’s missteps in the Middle East and the Ukraine were acknowledged by this largely Democratic contingent.

Then came illegal immigration, crime, abortion, and the high price of housing in California as less important points of worry. Such views appeared to be the norm for most of these folks at the dinner.

This discussion led me to ask whom these people planned to vote for in November.  As it turned out only my wife and I admitted on planning to cast ballots for the former President.

After this revelation the tone of the banter turned bitter and nasty.  How could you vote for this horrible felon Donald Trump, several people inquired?  This poisoned atmosphere reminded me of the song  American Pie, where Don McLean lamented about “The day the music died”.

It appears no longer what Donald Trump says or how much empirical evidence is shown about the incompetence and ineptitude of the past 3 and a half of the Biden-Harris administration matters. Most pollsters agree the V.P. has an excellent chance of winning.

Until recently this revelation shocked me.  I could not imagine how a candidate who on an ex officio way is to be considered leader of the free world, could possibly be elected without holding  press conferences or meaningful interviews with credible news agencies?

How wrong I have been.  Kamala Harris’s strategy of not mentioning her previous Progressive-Socialist record has resulted in her growing popularity.  

Based upon the findings of my dinner party straw poll, it looks like conservatives are going to take it on the shorts once again.

Apparently, issues are now less important than personality in determining who will reside in the White House come 2026.  Before this gloomy prediction is fulfilled, we turn to so called swing States as the last hope for Republican victory this fall.

The locales that will likely determine the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  

From a demographic perspective the voting blocks that will make the biggest difference include:

Suburban Women: This group is firmly in the Harris camp.  Despite Democratic failings with inflation and on the border, this constituency is largely anti-Trump.  Apparently, he reminds them of their first husband who they have come to hate.  Throwing in Pro-Choice advocates will lead to Harris gaining a huge advantage with this group.

Union Members: Despite support of Harris from leadership, Trump is doing well in blue collar world (with the exception of public employees)  A good example of union member defections include auto workers. They have seen job losses under Progressive Green New Deal electric powered cars advocacy.

The same holds true with those involved in the energy sector, especially in Pennsylvania.  Indicative of Republican strength is the non-endorsement of Harris by the Teamsters Union, despite the support of Democrats by union leaders. 

Younger voters:  This constituency leans heavily towards Harris.  Between the brain washing received in public education and the message of hope given by Democrats, this group votes heavily Democratic. 

Ironically, Kamala’s word salad speeches promoting diversity and equality resonates well with the youthful set.  I guess they like the idealism expressed by valedictorian’s at graduation ceremonies

Minorities:  Traditionally, Democrats have dominated catering to dark complected voters.  While Donald Trump has made inroads, especially among African-American men, Harris holds a large majority with this group.

This is not the case with a growing Hispanic constituency.  In Florida, immigrants from Cuba who experienced the tyranny from Castro, do not get behind Progressive’s such as Harris.

In swing States, those from South of the border can go either way in this election. Many of these folks, being Catholics, are pro-life, and have a great deal of concern about economic issues that affect their families.  Trump may have an edge here.

Those of Asian heritage are largely unpredictable. Those who experienced tyranny back home with dictators tend to vote Republican.  Many of their kids embrace the Donkey perspective.

The Middle Class:  These largely two income families are firmly on the GOP side of the election ledger.  They recognize Bidenomics as a disaster as their income has dropped in real dollars about 15% under Democratic leadership.  Middle Class men vote mostly conservative with their wives tending to be more liberal.

Combined with other issues including the Border, rising crime,  increased taxes, poor public education, and the high cost of housing, put this group firmly behind Trump.  The question is by how much?

The Silent Majority:  Richard Nixon’s favorite constituency will likely determine the outcome this November.  Because of the onslaught of anti-Trump propaganda in the mass media along with peer pressure from liberal Democrats, many voters have hidden their true feelings. It has been postulated the so called Silent Majority led to Donald Trumps victory in 2016 and defeat 4 years later.  

How they vote this time around is yet to be determined.

Of course none of this matters in California where those cast their ballots like Pavlov’s Dog in supporting Democrats.

For safety reasons, displaying a Trump for President sign at my house is out of the question.  Not risking arrest for a hate crime, my wife suggested I show support for our candidate with a placard in our backyard.

Being too timid to do even this, all we can do is hope Swing States can come to the rescue.