Watch as those that live and work near the San Diego airport complain about more planes and noise. Expect numerous environmental lawsuits being filed. It will be ten years before any expansion, if any, will be allowed. For those who fly in or out of this airport know that there are businesses everywhere near the airport.
“SDIA’s capacity is around 290,000 annual operations, or about 47 operations per hour. This capacity can also be reported as 794 operations per day or 23,820 per month. San Diego’s seasonal tourism increases operations during summer months, which makes reporting on an annual basis a misrepresentation. It is far more realistic to talk about hourly, daily or monthly capacity.
So, where is the number of operations at SDIA today compared to its capacity? For example, in the summer of 2024, the number of operations during June, July and August, were, respectively, 20,027, 20,896, and 20,550. Therefore, during these three months, the operations were at 84, 87.7, and 86.3 percent of capacity.
This will be a political football—then wait till the voters get to vote on a multi-billion bond to pay for the expansion.
San Diego Airport Is Reaching Capacity and Pressure to Remove Its Curfew Will Intensify
By Gary Wonacutt, OB Rag, 12/2/24 https://obrag.org/2024/12/san-diego-airport-is-reaching-capacity-and-pressure-to-remove-its-curfew-will-intensify/
San Diego International Airport (SDIA) is in a convenient downtown location largely because the tourism industry, including the downtown convention bureau and hoteliers, pushed hard to keep it there in a city-wide vote. However, these groups have overlooked the eventuality of SDIA reaching capacity. Over the decades, the number of operations has approached capacity, only to drop off due to global events like the 2008 economic crash and the 2021 pandemic. Once again in 2024, operations are nearing capacity.
Initially beginning at about 85 percent of capacity, the airport becomes constrained. Besides irate passengers waiting on the taxiways, there are significant consequences. The airport is surrounded by hills to the east and west and has a parking structure that decreases arrivals runway length. Coastal weather also leads to one of the highest number of missed approaches per operation in the US. Recently, an incident occurred when an aircraft was cleared to cross the runway at the same time another was cleared for takeoff. Fortunately, the aircraft was able to stop by hitting the brakes hard. Such incidents might increase as the airport becomes constrained. The Airport Authority, supported by the FAA, may maximize operations or may decide to limit the number of operations before there are too many issues.
SDIA’s capacity is around 290,000 annual operations, or about 47 operations per hour. This capacity can also be reported as 794 operations per day or 23,820 per month. San Diego’s seasonal tourism increases operations during summer months, which makes reporting on an annual basis a misrepresentation. It is far more realistic to talk about hourly, daily or monthly capacity.
So, where is the number of operations at SDIA today compared to its capacity? For example, in the summer of 2024, the number of operations during June, July and August, were, respectively, 20,027, 20,896, and 20,550. Therefore, during these three months, the operations were at 84, 87.7, and 86.3 percent of capacity.
There is also a fairly strong daily bias with Saturdays being at the low end of the operations. The peak day of the week varies, but the peak on average is about 7 percent greater than the weekly average.
The next question is taking all of these factors into consideration, when will the number of operations exceed the capacity, or how quickly are the number of daily or monthly operations increasing? The number of operations increased rapidly following the pandemic from a low of 45,363 to the most recent quarter of 60,492, or about 85 percent of capacity. Adding the daily bias pushes this number up to about 92 percent of capacity. If the number of operations continues at its current rate, it will be at 100 percent of capacity in Q1 2028. But long before that date, during the summer months, there will be substantial slowing and disruption of operations at SDIA.
There is one other consideration. While the Terminal 1 project was being sold, the claim was that the new gates would not add to the number of operations. But, that is not the case. The number of operations can be increased by using more gates for nighttime arrivals and storage, replacing daytime arrivals with daytime departures. Historically, SDIA had 51 gates, enabling 51 nighttime arrivals, increasing total operations to 835 daily. Currently, 19 gates are out of service due to Terminal 1 construction, reducing total potential operations. Once Terminal 1 is completed, with 62 gates, potential daily operations will increase to 856, raising annual operations to 316,500. But, there must be a way to get these aircraft out in the morning hours.
The Airport Authority rarely addresses the inevitability of reaching capacity. CEO Kimberly Becker claims the capacity at 290,000 annual operations will occur in 2035 or beyond, but practical capacity is reached when demand exceeds available slots. Early morning congestion with many departures scheduled between 6:15 am and 7:00 am causes delays, which will worsen with the new terminal and additional gates.
As SDIA nears capacity, tourism growth may be limited, possibly leading to efforts to eliminate the curfew. Debates and lawsuits could arise, influenced by the CLSSY SID, which moves nighttime departures near South Mission Beach. The pressure to remove the curfew might eventually prevail, with the CLSSY SID also affecting neighborhoods like Loma Portal, Pt. Loma and Midway even worse than the ZZOOO SID.
In summary, SDIA’s convenient downtown location has its downsides, with capacity issues looming. Tourism and local industries must prepare for the impact, and discussions on eliminating the curfew will likely intensify as the airport expands. My prediction is that this will all come to a head in 2028 when the Terminal 1 is completed, but beginning in the summer of 2025, we will see the impact of a constrained San Diego International Airport, raising the question was it really necessary to spend so much money on Terminal 1?
