California is changing. The families that have fled the State are leaving behind the poor, illegal aliens and the elderly. In a few years this will make a massive change in the demographics, economics and needs of California. For one thing, we will have an overabundance of government schools.
“California’s aging population could have major economic and political implications for the state. These include a potentially smaller workforce and increased demand for health care services. Debates around levels of immigration will likely intensify.
The aging population could also see the state shift further towards the right, with older people more likely to lean towards the GOP. In the 2024 election, California, along with New York, saw the largest swing towards the Republicans of any state compared with 2020, moving 12 percentage points towards Trump.
What To Know
By 2040, more than one in five Californians will be 65 or older, marking a sharp demographic shift that will bring new economic and social challenges, according to the report by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) published on January 31.
Thanks to Trump, we are already turning to the right.
California Faces ‘Unprecedented’ Population Shift
By Martha McHardy, Newsweek, 2/2/25 https://www.newsweek.com/california-population-growth-2040-report-2029408
California is facing an “unprecedented” population shift, with a dramatic increase in the older adult population expected by 2040, according to a new report.
One demographer told Newsweek: “California will be on the forefront, demographically, in learning how to deal with a growing diverse aging population.”
The report says that, by 2040, no single racial or ethnic group will form a majority.
Why It Matters
California’s aging population could have major economic and political implications for the state. These include a potentially smaller workforce and increased demand for health care services. Debates around levels of immigration will likely intensify.
The aging population could also see the state shift further towards the right, with older people more likely to lean towards the GOP. In the 2024 election, California, along with New York, saw the largest swing towards the Republicans of any state compared with 2020, moving 12 percentage points towards Trump.
What To Know
By 2040, more than one in five Californians will be 65 or older, marking a sharp demographic shift that will bring new economic and social challenges, according to the report by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) published on January 31.
The report projects that the state’s older adult population (65 years old and over) will increase by 59 percent by 2040, from 5.7 million to just over 9 million. This means that almost one-quarter of Californians (22 percent) will be age 65 or older by the end of the next decade, a substantial increase from 14 percent in 2020.
Meanwhile, the working-age population (20-64 years old) will remain mostly unchanged, increasing by only 3 percent, and the child population (0–17) will shrink by 24 percent. The 10-14 years old age range will see the largest decrease, shrinking by 29 percent compared with 2020, while those 90 and above will increase by 138 percent.
California’s aging population will also become more diverse, with no single racial or ethnic group forming a majority by 2040, the report says.
Growth will be highest among Latino and Asian older adults, who will make up 23.9 percent and 20.1 percent of the population of California by 2040, up from 18.6 percent and 17.1 percent respectively in 2020. And a significant portion—60 percent of Latinos and 85 percent of Asians—of those will be foreign-born by 2040, with about 75 percent of these individuals expected to speak a language other than English at home.
This reflects the dramatic increase in immigrants from Latin America and Asia to the state in the 1980s.
Economic disparities among older adults will persist despite slight improvements. The share of older adults living below twice the federal poverty level is projected to drop from 24 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2040. However, due to overall population growth, the number of low-income seniors will rise by approximately 600,000. Labor force participation among those in the 65 to 74 age group is also expected to increase, particularly among less-educated workers, likely due to financial necessity.
Housing will be another critical issue. While 70 percent of older Californians are expected to be homeowners—only slightly down from 73 percent in 2020—those who rent may face significant financial burdens. With rising housing costs, the 30 percent of seniors projected to be renters could struggle with affordability, posing challenges for stable housing as they age.
What People Are Saying
The report says: “California is entering an unprecedented demographic era, with declining populations of working-age adults and rapid growth in the number of older adults. These changes will have large impacts on the state, including fewer workers as more Californians retire, higher demand for health care services and the workers who provide those services, greater need for long-term care, budgetary challenges stemming from fewer income tax payers and more older adults requiring services.”
Dowell Myers, Professor of Policy, Planning, and Demography at the University of Southern California, told Newsweek: “Important to note that all those older Californians already live here today. We need to help prepare them for their future lives. That starts with also preparing today’s school children who will be the workers and tax payers of the future. We are going to strongly need those economic supporters to be at their highest capacity but that depends on the investments we make today! Californians all need to pull together for a better future for all.”
William Frey, demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, told Newsweek: “California will be on the forefront, demographically, in learning how to deal with a growing diverse aging population. More so than other states, its current working age population is much more diverse than the rest of the country, allowing it to work with this population to plan for assistance in their older years. Already the state is much better positioned to deal with the health and social services of this population which should put it in a good position to address its needs as it become older. In some ways it can be a model for other parts of the country in dealing with diverse populations of seniors.
“Also, California is not alone in its aging population. Nationally, the latest U.S. projections have the U.S. population at 22 percent 65+ in 2040, with a continued projected decline in the U.S. child population.
“For California, though, the size of the younger labor force population may be dependent on the future of immigration to the state and the nation as whole. Except for some recent years, California has been a main magnet for immigrants. If immigration rises in the future (to counter the national aging and slow population growth) California could benefit as immigrants will add to its younger and labor force age population—helping to lower the age dependency that most of the country will be feeling by 2040.”
What Happens Next
California is expected to continue growing by millions in the coming decades and continue getting older. This will increase demand for critical infrastructure and public services such as education, housing, transportation, water, health care, and social welfare.
According to the California Department of Ageing, the state’s older adult population is projected to reach 11.4 million—about 28 percent of the total population—by 2040.
