If you read this article only 2/3 through, you would think all is great with an unreliable, deficit ridden system. Unless the people pass a massive tax increase in 2026, the system goes bankrupt. They tried this in 2024 and could not even get it on the ballot. How bad is it? This year, using manipulative numbers, they books are balanced. But in 2026, there is no way to balance the budget—it will be $75 million in deficit. Instead of cutting expenses and systems, they are expanding—so the deficit will increase. This is irresponsible.
“As with Muni, COVID wiped out much of Caltrain’s fare-based revenues. The agency faces a deficit of about $75 million beginning in mid-2026. (Its current operating budget is balanced.) To boost fare revenues, the agency’s board approved a 25-cent base ticket increase starting July 1. The hope is that better, faster service will lure more riders, even with a fare bump.
But Caltrain will need other funding sources, such as a regional tax measure that might go before Bay Area voters next year. Otherwise, Caltrain could face drastic service cuts.
Despite all the reasons to take Caltrain’s fast new trains into the city, SF’s downtown recovery is still anemic. Not only are office vacancies and employee attendance dismal, the San Francisco Centre and Union Square shopping areas have seen an exodus of stores, all citing a lack of foot traffic. (A few smaller retailers have recently opened in Union Square; vacancy rates are roughly at 2022 levels, according to the SF Standard.)”
Add to this lack of riders the fact that the Federal government is cutting back on employees in San Fran and the Bay Area. Then you have the depopulation of the Bay Area. Not a good place to spends billions on a system that folks are not using.
An Electric Caltrain Has Jolted SF Ridership. Can Downtown Fun Keep Them Coming?
Riders love the faster service, especially on weekends. But weak return-to-office rates keep the agency’s future off-track.
by Kristi Coale, Frisc, 6/13/25 https://thefrisc.com/an-electric-caltrain-has-jolted-sf-ridership-can-downtown-fun-keep-them-coming/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5ed32a9cf9-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_06_13_09_02&utm_source=The+Frisc&utm_term=0_-5ed32a9cf9-458324243
Back in 2016, Caltrain made a modern bet on an old-school technology: electricity. The rail line that runs between Gilroy, via San Jose, and San Francisco was a major conduit for peninsula commuters into the city.
For 70 years its trains had run on diesel. Switching to an electric system was supposed to replace those polluting, noisy trains with modern zero-emission cars — at a cost of $2.72 billion. Then the pandemic hit, and commuting, especially to tech-heavy SF, became an afterthought. But now Caltrain hopes its faster, more reliable electrified system will be an engine of recovery.
The new trains — clean, sleek, and WiFi-connected — debuted in August 2024 at a flashy press event. Since then, Caltrain’s most important promise, faster service, seems to be holding up. Local trains, which stop at all stations, take 75 minutes instead of 100 from San Jose to SF. An express train takes about an hour.
With the faster, shinier trains have come more riders, says Caltrain. While it has miles to go to get back to pre-COVID levels, ridership is up 60 percent from the pre-electric months of 2024. From April 2024 through April 2025, average weekday ridership increased 53 percent, while weekend numbers climbed 112 percent.
Weekend service has doubled, with trains every half hour instead of every hour. “Electric trains can stop and start faster, so we can run more,” said Caltrain director of government and community affairs Jason Baker at a March 26 public meeting.
On average, 32,000 people ride Caltrain on weekdays and more than 400,000 people pack cars on weekends.
Brian McNeil, a data engineer for Major League Baseball, is among the beneficiaries. The San Jose resident has taken Caltrain to the city for seven years. “It was a huge difference from before. The trains don’t bump around nearly as much,” he told The Frisc.
SF resident Mira Cohen said her bi-monthly trips to Mountain View to see family are much better on the electric trains. She likes the more frequent service, along features like tables at all seats (the better for working on her laptop) and free WiFi. “It does go out in the tunnels and at a few stops. But it’s great to have,” Cohen said.
Now boarding in SF
Riders also have more reasons to come into San Francisco. Perhaps not office commuters — those numbers are still in the doldrums — but big events are drawing big crowds. Just as SF’s Muni system has seen its best recovery on bus lines re-engineered for faster rides, Caltrain hopes that its electric service feeds into a self-reinforcing loop. The effect is showing.
The Frisc received a breakdown of boardings at the main 4th and King terminal, as well as Caltrain’s SF stations at 22nd Street and Bayshore Boulevard. On average, ridership for all three stations from January to May 2025 are 59 percent higher than that same period last year. These boardings make up 24 to 28 percent of Caltrain ridership.
Most people get on or off at 4th and King, which is just steps away from Oracle Park, and a 20-minute walk either to Chase Center or to downtown spaces with free concerts and street parties.
The agency said that Bay to Breakers on May 18 brought an additional 4,000 riders, while the May 29 Kendrick Lamar/SZA concert at Oracle Park drew an additional 5,700 riders. Both events featured special cars to accommodate rides.
Chase Center’s newest tenant, the women’s pro basketball Golden State Valkyries, have sold out all home games since their inaugural WNBA season began May 16. (Caltrain did not have ridership numbers for Valkyrie games.)
Taken at face value, these numbers add more credence to the benefit of transit infrastructure improvement in a dense city like San Francisco. Muni has seen its most dramatic recovery on lines like the 49 Van Ness, where the agency poured $346 million into dedicated bus lanes and improved service.
The agency says 49 Van Ness ridership as of Sept. 2024 was 103 percent of what it was in Sept. 2019.
But Caltrain’s massive electric investment hasn’t paid off on weekdays, where ridership still lags behind pre-COVID levels. Compared to January through April 2019, weekday ridership January through April 2025 was 51 percent below the same period in 2019.
Fingers crossed
Research shows how healthy public transportation helps local economies — and San Francisco needs all the help it can get. Muni and BART tend to get more attention, but Caltrain can serve an important role in SF recovery too.
As with Muni, COVID wiped out much of Caltrain’s fare-based revenues. The agency faces a deficit of about $75 million beginning in mid-2026. (Its current operating budget is balanced.) To boost fare revenues, the agency’s board approved a 25-cent base ticket increase starting July 1. The hope is that better, faster service will lure more riders, even with a fare bump.
But Caltrain will need other funding sources, such as a regional tax measure that might go before Bay Area voters next year. Otherwise, Caltrain could face drastic service cuts.
Despite all the reasons to take Caltrain’s fast new trains into the city, SF’s downtown recovery is still anemic. Not only are office vacancies and employee attendance dismal, the San Francisco Centre and Union Square shopping areas have seen an exodus of stores, all citing a lack of foot traffic. (A few smaller retailers have recently opened in Union Square; vacancy rates are roughly at 2022 levels, according to the SF Standard.)
It could get worse with federal layoffs and the city’s own budget cuts, even though SF employees must return to the office four days per week starting in August.
Short-term help may be on the way. The state legislature this week overruled Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed $1.1 billion cut to public transit, and extended an interest-free $750 million loan to Bay Area transit agencies to help bridge them to 2027, when a potential regional transit measure (if passed) would kick in.
It’s unclear if Newsom will sign off on the changes. The final budget is due June 30. For the next couple of weeks, Caltrain and other agencies will work with local officials and transit advocates to ensure “this package is part of the final budget,” said SFMTA spokesperson Michael Roccaforte.
Meanwhile, SF’s summer sports and event season is heating up. The Giants are fighting for first place (47 more home games at Oracle Park) and the Valkyries, an expansion team expected to lose badly, are drawing sellout crowds (18 more home games this summer). What’s more, the Valkyries are riding a mini winning streak. Even a little momentum is a big deal these days in San Francisco.
