Question? Did Rich Eber write tis are was it written by AI? Literally there is no way to know. We are heading into the unknown. Experiments have been made with AI and books and articles have been written, in record time, flawlessly. Will teachers and professors be able to tell the difference? Lawyers can “write” briefs in a matter of minutes using AI—without any errors. The world we live in has changed.
Though Elon Musk and others have asked for a six month moratorium, that will not work and will not happen. We are in a race with China—the one with the best AI will be the winner of the world. Trump talks about “fake news”. AI can write fake news so accurately and persuasively, that even The Don will not be able to tell truth from AI.
I suspect that within two years we will have massive changes in work, jobs and society. There appears to be nothing to stop this.
Artificial Intelligence’s uncertain future by Richard Eber
Richard Eber, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views 4/6/23
Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) AKA intellectual automation has become an important element in our lives; whether we know it or not. Society is becoming increasingly dependent on computer technology to guide us each day.
Every time one goes on the internet, the forces of A.I. and its close cousin algorithms are at work influencing us.
Despite increased discussion from the news media to Congress on this topic, A.I.-algorithms are on about the same level as climate change is to global warming. Confusion reigns supreme.
As an example I use the web site Pandora for the purpose of listening to music. By the process of listing an artist or recording, the service plays records that are compatible with a my given taste. If there are cuts that I like or dislike, Pandora is advised. Before long I am enjoying my favorite rock songs circa 1968 to 1990 without the influence of distained contemporary music.
Pandora makes money by selling advertisements every 5 or 6 songs. There must be money in this as the original company was purchased by Serius XM Holdings for 3.5 billion dollars in 2019. Under this arrangement everyone appears to be a winner.
A similar economic model of influencing consumers has been the foundation for on-line prosperity.
Happy endings aren’t always taking place in A.I. and algorithm world. Social media has used this technology to guide consumers in the marketplace but also to influence political thought. Google, Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo, Disney, Tic Tok, and others have been accused by conservatives of molding their clients to embracing a brand of Progressive liberal thought.
This has alarmed Republicans who have seen their influence waning in recent years. The Covid-19 epidemic sent alarm bells as opposition to vaccines and blaming China for the outbreak was suppressed in social media. At the same time critics have blamed the internet and accompanying school curriculum for the emergence of woke-anti American culture.
Currently, battlegrounds are forming with Florida Governor Ron Santos taking away tax privileges of Disney to the growing movement to ban the Tic Tok platform on the internet. These activities are but a tip of the iceberg as A.I. has quickly emerged as an important issue in the workplace.
This includes:
- Automation in companies ranging from car manufacture to Mc Donald’s and even engineering functions where computers are taking away jobs at an alarming rate.
- Will the work week by reduced from the current 40 hours to 32 or even less because the number of jobs that will inevitably be reduced because of A.I.
- Is it possible to moderate the effects of technology to avoid the dilemma of Hal the computer from Stanly Kubrick’s 2001 Space Odyssey?
One of many businesses currently grappling with these issues is the real estate appraisal field. Paul Chandler CEO of Property Sciences, who serves on the Automated Valuation Model (AVM) Task Force for Industry Advisory Council of The Appraisal Foundation, has actively been involved in making sure algorithms do not interfere with the integrity of the appraisal process.
This is a difficult task because the institutional mortgage market comprised of Wall Street, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, large banks and rating agencies are attempting to use new technologies to serve their own purposes.
In walking an A.I. tight rope Mr. Chandler remarked “Due to what is referred to as the “Curse of Dimensionality” real estate data is difficult to understand statistically. That is, there are so many property features and behavioral predilections of buyers it is difficult to compute meaningful statistical metrics with mathematical confidence.”
According to Chandler the process to replace the human factor is already under way. “The Government Sponsored Enterprises – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – recently announced that an appraisal is no longer the default option for loans purchased by the agencies. By the way, the majority of residential loans in America are funded by these two agencies. The new default is now an automated valuation model (AVM), which is the name for an artificial intelligence appraisal.”
Chandler cautions. “If lenders (banks) are in charge of this process, what are the dangers for the housing industry? For 100 years Congress has attempted to legislate the need for independent appraisals in the mortgage lending process. Without an independent professional appraiser, homeowners are left to the advice of lenders, brokers and other parties who stand to make large commissions on the transaction.
There are difficulties reducing the human factors involved with the appraisal process. If enough bad loans are given, a recession can occur similar to what happened in 2010 when the housing market crashed.
This is a concern as Chandler points out,” Because of the nature of money creation by the Federal Reserve and its member banks, mortgage securities sold by Fannie and Freddie have become systemic to the global financial system. Much of quantitative easing deployed by the Fed involved the purchase of mortgage securities, which are now sitting on the books of many of the largest banks.
The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse is a result of these mortgage securities sitting on the banks balance sheet, which due to the rapid increase in interest rates has made the market value of these securities significantly less than their book value.”
He cautions, “It is clear from SVB that federal banking officials are struggling to regulate these complex financial institutions. This is not the time to give them greater flexibility and less oversight. Allowing lenders to control their own algorithmic valuation models with little to no oversight is a dangerous outlook for the stability of the global financial system.
The points Paul Chandler makes about his field are indicative of the difficult road that lies ahead for both society and governmental entities as we grapple with the issues of artificial intelligence in shaping our economy. By multiplying this dilemma by hundreds of industries, a great deal of human thought will be required to unravel the A.I. Rubrics Cube
If only this process were as easy as me creating my own dinosaur Pandora play list.
Even if A.I. continues to improve, the ramifications on society must be dealt with. If automation continues to have more influence on our lives, will there be enough jobs left over to be left for the work force to fill?
Next week- A.I.’s political side revealed
