This maybe the good news for America. Folks fleeing the Socialist Paradise of California are moving to Arizona. If they remember how bad the former Golden State treated them, they will vote Republican—and turn this purple State into a bright Red State–and help elect a Republican as President.
“Although a mass exodus from California has been observed in recent years, the pipeline to Arizona shows a unique path that more than 69,000 Californians took in 2021 and that 74,000 took in 2022. Knowing that California is solidly blue, the migration patterns raise questions about whether the residents moving across state lines are Americans who will bring their liberal ideologies to Arizona or if they’re Americans seeking to leave those progressive beliefs behind.
“In swing states with razor-thin margins, everything matters,” Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek. “While we don’t have a great demographic profile of what type of Californians are moving to AZ, it is definitely something to explore and message accordingly.”
The message is simple, “DON’T TURN ARIZONA INTO CALIFORNIA”.
Californians Moving to Arizona Could Upend 2024
Newsweek, 10/23/23 https://www.newsweek.com/californians-moving-arizona-could-upend-2024-election-1837067?utm_source=STMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TheBulletin&emh=17b11134735586c2e6b02f0f7a6503f550673633571ead93b4cb829e72241e11&lctg=64fff80c241e603fb409f459&utm_term=Bulletin
Things are looking to get even dicier in one of the nation’s most prominent swing states as an influx of new residents raises the stakes on what could be the key to the presidency in 2024.
State-to-state migration numbers released by the U.S. Census on Thursday show that while less Californians are moving to Texas, more are moving to Arizona—the state that President Joe Biden ultimately won by some 10,000 votes over ex-President Donald Trump in 2020.
Although a mass exodus from California has been observed in recent years, the pipeline to Arizona shows a unique path that more than 69,000 Californians took in 2021 and that 74,000 took in 2022. Knowing that California is solidly blue, the migration patterns raise questions about whether the residents moving across state lines are Americans who will bring their liberal ideologies to Arizona or if they’re Americans seeking to leave those progressive beliefs behind.
“In swing states with razor-thin margins, everything matters,” Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek. “While we don’t have a great demographic profile of what type of Californians are moving to AZ, it is definitely something to explore and message accordingly.”
Arizona was the second-closest state in the 2020 election, behind Georgia. Biden’s victory marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had carried the state since former President Bill Clinton in 1992 and only the second time since Harry Truman’s win in 1948.
“Arizona is the ultimate swing state,” Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy at Arizona-based public affairs firm HighGround, told Newsweek. “It’s likely that the road to the White House goes through Arizona this year, instead of through Ohio or through Florida.”
Since the last presidential election, Democrats have made significant gains in Arizona, with Senator Mark Kelly winning reelection and Katie Hobbs winning the governorship during the midterms. But while those electoral shifts suggest that Democrats have made Arizona a more welcoming home for left-leaning Californians, Bentz said it will ultimately depend which ex-Californians come to The Grand Canyon State.
“If you look at places outside of Maricopa County in places like Yavapai County … which is north, and then in Pinal County, which is south—They’re both growing suburban areas,” he said. “Those are getting much, much redder, and much more conservative-leaning. Whereas, the more metro pieces are getting much more progressive-leaning.”
GOP strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek that while he believes most of the people moving from California are trying to “escape” liberal policies, Arizona is a unique “outlier” of a destination because of those recent Democratic wins.
“The Arizona Republican Party needs to focus first and foremost on candidate quality and on selecting candidates who attract a broad swath of conservative Arizona voters. That’s the best defense for what will be a continued out-migration of California voters,” Klink said.
Political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek that despite the possibility these new residents could sway Arizona more Democrat or more Republican, there is a greater chance that they present an opportunity to both parties.
“Fewer than half who have migrated since 2020 have registered with either party. Most of the newly registered voters since 2016 are either nonpartisan or independent,” Townsend said.
“One can argue that the fastest growing party in Arizona are swing voters,” he said.
Independents make up the largest political sector in Arizona. The most recent voter registration statistics from Arizona’s secretary of state show that around 34.6 percent of residents, or 1.45 million people, identify as affiliated with “other,” compared to approximately 34.4 percent who identify as Republican and 30 percent who identify as Democrats.
“We’ve got two major coasts in Phoenix and Tucson, and then you’ve got rural outside of those regions that are very much acting like flyover states, the heartland and then you’ve got the suburban areas, which is really the battleground states,” Bentz said. “So we kind of have a microcosm of the country going on.”
Bentz said the ages of these new residents will also change voter demographics. Although Arizona has traditionally been a landing spot for people from the Midwest hoping to retire in the sun, because these retirees grew up in the 1960s, “their overall level of conservatism has started to decline.”
“It was a decade ago, the older electorate very much opposed the legalization of marijuana, but as that demographic aged out and got closer to folks who grew up into the ’60s, we saw a lot less reticence to marijuana,” Bentz said. “There’s a big age contingent that is probably more of a driving factor than a regional continuing.”
Townsend added, “The Arizona Republican Party is deeply reliant on the senior vote, many of whom will disappear from the voting universe over the next decade.”
But others note that it’s not just older people who are moving to Arizona. More young Americans, who see economic opportunities in Arizona’s booming semiconductor industry or who are seeking lower housing costs as they start families, are moving east from California.
“Arizona’s economy is changing with more high-tech jobs,” Barbara Norrander, political science professor at the University of Arizona, told Newsweek.
Norrander added that Arizona bears a lot of similarities to Texas, which remains the No. 1 destination for Californians who migrate to other states, but has the added benefit of being closer to The Golden State, making it easier for ex-Californians to visit family and friends still there
