Californians Turn on Democratic Party

Is California in play for 2026?  Is Newsom the best asset the Republicans in California have?  Could Kamala be the one Democrat a Republican can beat for Governor?

“But polls indicate the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. According to new polling by Capitol Weekly, published on February 6, when asked: “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” only 11 percent said yes, with 79 percent of voters saying that the Democratic Party has not shown this ability. Among Democrats the numbers didn’t improve much—with 19 percent expressing confidence in their party, and 68 percent saying “no.” The poll surveyed 1,198 voters in California.

Voters were also asked to give one word to describe the Democratic Party, and the responses were bleak. The most common words voters chose were “lost,” “ineffective” and “weak.” Other words included “toothless,” “ineffectual” and “floundering.” Some voters were more positive, describing the party as “determined,” “optimistic” and “caring.”

Will 2026 see a Revolution in California?  Only with the right candidate—but it can happen.

Californians Turn on Democratic Party

Newsweek,  2/14/25  https://www.newsweek.com/california-polling-democratic-party-newsom-harris-2030573

Once a stronghold of Democratic dominance, California is witnessing a growing wave of discontent among its residents, signaling a potential political shift.

Newsweek has contacted the California Democratic Party for comment via email.

Why It Matters

If the Democratic Party loses ground in California, it could reshape the state’s leadership as early as 2026, when the next governor will be elected. With 52 electoral votes, a shift in California’s electoral trends, could also impact key elections in the future, and challenge the party’s dominance in other blue states.

What To Know

California has historically been firmly blue, voting Democrat in every presidential election since 1988 and choosing a Democratic governor in each election since 2006.

But polls indicate the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. According to new polling by Capitol Weekly, published on February 6, when asked: “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” only 11 percent said yes, with 79 percent of voters saying that the Democratic Party has not shown this ability. Among Democrats the numbers didn’t improve much—with 19 percent expressing confidence in their party, and 68 percent saying “no.” The poll surveyed 1,198 voters in California.

Voters were also asked to give one word to describe the Democratic Party, and the responses were bleak. The most common words voters chose were “lost,” “ineffective” and “weak.” Other words included “toothless,” “ineffectual” and “floundering.” Some voters were more positive, describing the party as “determined,” “optimistic” and “caring.”

Voters were also asked who they would be most inclined to support for governor in 2026 when Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom‘s term ends. Despite not having declared her intention to run for the position, former Vice President Kamala Harris is believed by some to be a front-runner due to her name recognition in California.

Polls have reflected this, with a survey from University of California, Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times, conducted in October, showing Harris with a substantial advantage over other candidates for the 2026 California gubernatorial race.

The latest Emerson College poll, conducted between February 10-11, also showed the same trend, with 57 percent saying they would support Harris for the governor’s mansion, putting her miles ahead of any of her contenders. Last week, pressure on Harris to run escalated when Democratic California Attorney General Rob Bonta endorsed her after saying he wouldn’t run.

Read more California

“I would support her if she ran, I’ve always supported her in everything she’s done. She would be field-clearing,” Politico quoted the attorney general as saying. Bonta considered running for governor last year, but changed his mind after President Donald Trump defeated Harris in the presidential race, according to Politico.

Capitol Weekly’s survey suggests that Harris may not be as popular previous polls have shown. Despite her name recognition, Republican businessman John Cox was trailed Harris by just two points when voters were asked who they support for governor, on with 21 percent backing him and 23 percent backing the former vice president. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who has been a vocal MAGA supporter, is expected to announce his candidacy for California governor on Monday, according to Fox News. He was not included in the poll.

The numbers for Harris come after California, where Harris previously served as San Francisco district attorney and later as state attorney general and U.S. senator, saw the largest rightward shifts in the 2024 election, along with New York, shifting toward the GOP by 12 points compared to 2020. But California and New York were not alone in shifting toward the Republican Party, with all but two states shifting rightward since 2020, leading to a comfortable Trump victory in November.

The polling suggests voters aren’t just turning on the Democratic Party on a national level, they are also turning on the party on a statewide level.

The Capitol Weeky poll shows that California voters are divided over whether they approve of Newsom. About 52 percent said they had a somewhat or very favorable view of Newsom, while 48 percent said the opposite. Emerson’s latest poll showed the same trend, with 42 percent saying they approve of the job Newsom is doing in office, while 40 percent disapprove of the job he is doing. However, according to the Capitol Weekly poll, when Democratic voters were asked who they consider to be the best leader of the Democratic Party to push back on actions of the Trump administration, the most common answer was Newsom.

The governor is currently facing a recall effort after an intent to recall petition reached the required number of signatures to proceed. Organizers are now attempting to gather between 1.2 million and 1.3 million signatures over 160 days to allow the petition to be placed on the ballot for Californians to vote on.

California has suffered devastating damage from wildfires that started across Los Angeles County in January. The fires burned over 47,900 acres, destroying more than 16,250 homes and businesses, and killing 29 people.

Since then, several California officials, including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) Chief Kristin Crowley, have faced criticism. However, Newsom, a potential Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential election, has taken the most blame.

The recall petition, organized by Saving California, accuses Newsom of “gross mismanagement during the Los Angeles County fires,” saying that “inadequate resources and delayed responses left communities devastated.”

Saving California Chairman Randy Economy, a former senior adviser to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., told Newsweek last month that he is confident the 1.2 million signatures goal can be reached in light of the wildfires.

“If we don’t get this done in a couple of weeks, I’ll be shocked. The anger is driving this, and we’ve been bombarded 24 hours a day for the past two weeks with people asking, ‘Where do I sign? How do I get my petition?’ The demand is there, and it’s only going to grow stronger,” he said.

“I think people right now have had it. The people who lost their homes have had it. These were his traditional base of voters, and they’re all disgusted with him. The anger is something I’ve never seen in California politics. I’ve been doing this for 40 years as a consultant, and I’ve never seen so much anger in my life,” he added.

Newsom has faced criticism over California’s wildfire response, with Trump accusing him of blocking water supplies to Southern California to protect a threatened fish—claims state officials deny. Trump also alleged Newsom refused to sign a nonexistent “water restoration declaration” and falsely stated the U.S. military had “turned on the water.” The two have long clashed over water policy, including Trump’s 2019 rollback of environmental protections, which Newsom challenged in court.

Trump also threatened to withhold federal aid for the region unless the state changed its approach to water management.

Trump and Newsom met again last week following the president’s threat. The meeting did not result in any resolution on federal aid, but the governor described the conversation as “substantive” and “positive.” He said they discussed wildfire recovery and more contentious topics, including water policy.

According to Emerson’s latest poll, 62 percent think the California government should spend more on firefighter staffing and equipment, knowing increased funding may require a tax increase, while 35 percent think they should spend the same, and 3 percent think the state should spend less.

“Majorities of Democrats (68%), Republicans (61%), and independents (54%) support increased state spending on firefighter staffing and equipment, reflecting heightened concern amid wildfire threats,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

What People Are Saying

Tom Hogen-Esch, professor of political science at California State University Northridge, told Newsweek: “If these numbers are correct they definitely represent a flashing red warning for the California Democratic Party. But the numbers seem to indicate a couple of opposing impulses from the electorate.

“First, the numbers suggest that Democratic voters are searching for a greater level of opposition to the Trump administration. But on the other hand, many voters seem to be pushing back against liberal policies in their recent shift in the presidential election in favor of Donald Trump. Nothing lasts forever.

“Democrats have had essentially unitary control over the California government for the last 20 or 25 years. At some point a shift is inevitable. The Democrats need to begin thinking about how to craft a political message that appeals to the large percentage of very liberal voters in California who live in major urban areas, but balance those messages with the growing influence of Hispanic voters in more inland counties who are traditional supporters of the Democratic coalition, but now seem to be open to voting Republican.

“But Republican politicians also need to be careful about how to craft their message. A pure MAGA strategy is probably not sellable to Californians in statewide offices. A more moderate message might be one that can garner sufficient appeal to once again become competitive in the state.

“I think it’s unlikely that a recall effort against Newsom will be successful given that the wildfires were essentially entirely a local government responsibility. But the fact that Harris is in such a tight race with a Republican politician with far less name recognition would seem to suggest that Republicans may be competitive – really for the first time in a couple of decades – in upcoming races for statewide offices.”

What Happens Next

California’s political future remains uncertain. It is currently unclear how many signatures the recall petition against Newsom has. If organizers fail to gather the 1.2 million to 1.3 million signatures needed to put the petition on the ballot, the recall effort will fail.

Newsom has faced several other unsuccessful recall attempts in the past. The most successful attempt to date came in 2021, when organizers collected enough signatures to place the recall on the ballot. However, Newsom managed to defeat the recall in September of that year, with 7.9 million voting against and 4.9 million voting for it.

Meanwhile, Harris has not declared if she intends to run for governor in 2026, and Newsom has not declared if he intends to run for president in 2028. In November, Newsom had +550 odds of becoming the next president, according to SportsBettingDime, which amounts to a 15 percent chance. Harris had +2500 odds, or a 4 percent chance.