In the midst of a report on the Marin Transit system, came a gem. Not about transportation, but about the future economics of California.
“A financial forecast shows Measure AA sales tax revenues are flat this year, and are projected to decrease by 0.5% next year.
Over the next 10 years, those revenues are forecast to drop $20 million and total revenues are forecast to decline $36.1 million, Gradia said.
“So Measure AA is very important to the district,” said Gradia, noting that about 45% of the agency’s revenue is generated by the tax.”
If sales tax revenues are down, that means jobs are down. At the same time Newsom and the Democrats are raising the cost of gas to $8.00 a gallon, home owner insurance has exploded and failed government schools, with declining enrollment are getting more money—and illegal aliens are getting free health care. Looks like Texas, Tennessee and Florida should get prepared for the next surge of ex-Californians.
Marin Transit approves balanced budget as revenue dropoff looms
By Adrian Rodriguez, Marin Independent Journal, 6/3/25 https://www.marinij.com/2025/06/03/marin-transit-approves-balanced-budget-as-revenue-dropoff-looms/
Marin Transit is planning for economic uncertainty now that federal pandemic relief funds have been depleted and sales tax revenues are projected to decline.
The board governing the fixed-route bus service approved a balanced budget for the next fiscal year on Monday. The budget includes $61.1 million in total revenue and $56.7 in expenditures, allowing the agency to contribute $4.4 million to its reserves.
“This allows for the next fiscal year a fully funded emergency and contingency operations reserves,” which equal about $23.3 million, said Lauren Gradia, director of finance and capital programs. “That is the equivalent of six months of operating expenses.”
The district would have a capital reserve of $25.7 million that is available for local matches, primarily on facility projects and vehicle replacement projects, she said.
However, the spending plan heavily relies on unspent funds from prior years, Gradia said.
Of the $51.1 million of operations revenues, about 17%, or $10.3 million, is carry over Measure AA sales tax revenue and state funds, Gradia said.
Spending down these dollars and the reserves is what is contributing to a projected steep fiscal cliff.
A financial forecast shows Measure AA sales tax revenues are flat this year, and are projected to decrease by 0.5% next year.
Over the next 10 years, those revenues are forecast to drop $20 million and total revenues are forecast to decline $36.1 million, Gradia said.
“So Measure AA is very important to the district,” said Gradia, noting that about 45% of the agency’s revenue is generated by the tax.
At a draft budget meeting in May, San Rafael Councilmember Maribeth Bushey said, “That’s an alarming situation to be in.”
Bushey, a Marin Transit board member, said, “It’s a little bit difficult to be approving the budget without even a strategic view of how we’re going to bridge this cliff.”
Bushey asked for a presentation of how to address the shortfall.
Gradia said on Monday that officials will begin developing a new 10-year financial plan that will propose various strategies for savings and revenue growth.
That includes a proposal to reduce fixed-route hours by 12,000 in fiscal year 2028-2029. That equals a 6.5% reduction, which could save $20 million in expenses, Gradia said.
Staff are also considering plan to increase fares. A $1 increase could net $6.6 million in fare revenue growth, while a $2 increase could gain about $13 million, she said.
Gradia said that for the time being, finances are stable and staff don’t expect the steep drop in revenues to happen because they are working on these mitigations to prevent it.
Meetings to put the plan to work are scheduled to begin this fall, Gradia said.
The last time the district developed a similar plan was in 2020. It was updated in 2022, but the time had come for an updated 10-year outlook, Gradia said.
“I look forward to further discussions on the long-term planning,” said Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan, chair of the transit board.
The budget includes about $5.4 million for administration, which involves maintaining a full-time-equivalent staff of 21.5 employees. There are no staff vacancies.
Operations make up about 72% of expenses, equal to around $33.5 million. This includes transportation contracts with the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District and Marin Airporter, which provide fixed-route bus services for the agency. These contracts have collectively gone up 4%.
The operations budget includes $1.7 million for the yellow school bus program; $3.1 million for rural transportation services; and $7.9 million for Marin Access services, which are designed for seniors and people with disabilities.
Marin Transit is spending about $10 million on capital improvements, including about $1.3 million on new vehicles and $2 million on bus stop upgrades.
The capital program also includes $5.6 million on parking and maintenance facilities, such as a $3.2 million construction project at 3010 and 3020 Kerner Blvd. to build a solar bus yard. Another $1.9 million of that is going toward the environmental review and design of the future electric bus hub.
“The budget continues our existing fixed route service levels. It allows for an increase in our ADA legally mandated paratransit service hours,” Gradia said. “It also continues to invest in facilities for the stability and to meet our zero-emissions goals.”
