Will the 2024 election be determined by the voters—or pre-determined by Artificial Intelligence? In the past, data was used to simulate election results. Now with AI, we are able to simulate numerous election strategies and which work the best.
“Following the assassination of John Kennedy in 1963, a political science fiction book was published that lives on to the present. The 480 by Eugene Burdick chronicles the use of computer simulations to breakdown sub-groups that make up the electorate.
The 480 criticizes the effects on the body politic of mainframe computers to run massive simulations, which predict the public reaction to certain (proposed) political moves before implementing them. If done properly, a candidate for public office would have a major advantage in winning elections.
As it turned out Burdick’s world of the 480 was a preview of coming attractions. Computer technology has evolved with artificial intelligence (A.I.) to be a mainstay in American politics. Their importance has augmented public opinion polls to determine what stands candidates wish to take on important issues. Breaking down groups by party affiliation, age, sex, race, religion, etc., is a major part of todays politician’s tool kit.
Are we about to take the human element out of the elections process? We have been on that road in the past—now for the ultimate removal of people making political decisions.
The 480 realized by Richard Eber
Richard Eber, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views, 4/13/23
Following the assassination of John Kennedy in 1963, a political science fiction book was published that lives on to the present. The 480 by Eugene Burdick chronicles the use of computer simulations to breakdown sub-groups that make up the electorate.
The 480 criticizes the effects on the body politic of mainframe computers to run massive simulations, which predict the public reaction to certain (proposed) political moves before implementing them. If done properly, a candidate for public office would have a major advantage in winning elections.
As it turned out Burdick’s world of the 480 was a preview of coming attractions. Computer technology has evolved with artificial intelligence (A.I.) to be a mainstay in American politics. Their importance has augmented public opinion polls to determine what stands candidates wish to take on important issues. Breaking down groups by party affiliation, age, sex, race, religion, etc., is a major part of todays politician’s tool kit.
Donald Trump knows exactly what buttons to push to band together his supporters. This so-called Mega Group tends to be white, disenfranchised by Washington D.C., by strongly patriotic, pro law enforcement, have a strong belief in God, and be against the Democratic party’s road to socialism,
The only problem with Donald Trump’s “draining the swamp” version of the 480 is that it is not inclusive to win the Presidency next year. It may be enough for him to win the nomination but currently lacks the ability to attract Democrats, young folks, people of color and most of all independent voters.
There is much concern in the Republican hierarchy that Trump is looking like another version of Barry Goldwater. They know having the attitude depicted in 1964 “in your heart you know he’s right”, will not win 6o years later.
In 2020 computer simulations were utilized by Joe Biden to defeat the incumbent President. Biden stayed home in Delaware, taking few chances on the campaign trail. A.I. data showed by running on an anti-Trump platform, was all that was necessary to win. His Political Action Committee advertisement described him as a uniter who the public would be more comfortable with than the bombastic President who proceeded him.
A.I. was also an important ingredient in isolating potential voters in 2020 and the midterm elections to increase voter turn-out for the donkeys. Precinct work, largely performed by union volunteers, increased the Democratic party’s advantage.
Things will be different in 2024. Unless Trump is the GOP challenger, Democrats will need to create a message that will appeal to voters beyond hatred of the former President. Assuming this is the case, they will have to dig deep into the 480 bag of tricks to find enough issues to hold on to the White House.
This will include:
- Continue pro-abortion messages that resonate with female voters.
- Back off defund the police movement as this turns off independents.
- At least pretend to being pro education as the middle class is concerned about the country becoming less literate with each passing year.
- Reduce spending in the public sector which fuels inflation.
- OK to support climate change policies but allow energy independence under Donald Trump to be restored.
- Propose new immigration legislation to fix problems at the border.
If this sounds a bit like Bill Clinton, Perhaps Democrats need to move towards the middle of the road should they wish to win this time around.
Assuming Joe Biden is not on the ballot, they will need to find a candidate that appeals to the masses. We already know Kamala Harris is not the answer. Even if she memorized The 480, this California politician lacks the social and communications skills to be elected to anything beyond dog catcher.
This brings us to Gavin Newsom. He is very skilled in his craft and knows how to manipulate social media. He utilized support for gay marriage and legalized marijuana to be elected Lt. Governor. For the next 8 years he barely spoke about any other important issues while spouting progressive idealism in taking over Jerry Brown’s throne.
With a coalition of public employee unions, environmentalists, and crony capitalist buddy’s, he had no problem winning two terms, not to mention beating back a recall.
It didn’t hurt that Newsom faced little opposition from conservatives as the state Republican Party provides virtually no opposition to Democrats in Sacramento. Instead of utilizing a 480 model, the GOP is mired in the 486 mode as their use of modern technology appears to be in the stone age.
Assuming Newsom will throw his hat in the ring when Biden agrees to step down in the next few months, we can expect him to utilize A.I. and intensive use of social media to capture the Presidency?
Utilizing his California strategy should be enough to capture the Democratic nomination. Newsom’s current impressive constituency in Progressive circles plays well with the Bernie Sanders-Elizabeth Warren wing of the Party.
Count on Newsom to say anything to achieve his objectives. His past history fits the bill of one of Eugene Burdick’s other novels, The Ninth Wave. Its slogan “Fear plus hate equals power”, especially fits his slick brand of politics.
It appears that both the extreme left and right have their fair share of candidates. The success of both parties may well depend on how they deal with the middle-independent swing vote.
Shouting about abortion and diversity may not be enough to sway an electorate that is weary of crippling inflation. Democrats may also want to tone down climate change and woke social value rhetoric.
Republicans have even a larger task trying to be positive and resonate their issues that matter to folks. Much will be determined by Donald Trump or another GOP standard bearer who will need to appeal to women, Independents and swing voters to capture the White House
No doubt social media and A.I. will play an important role in determining who will win in 2024. Historians may well compare this to the effects of the Kennedy-Nixon television debates in 1960, as the beginning or a new era in American politics.
