If I were a betting person there will be two major changes to the Recall laws. First, you will need 20%, not the current 12% of the voters from the last election gubernatorial election to qualify. Second, for Governor they will end a replacement vote at the same time as the Recall vote. Instead, only a question, should Guv Newsom be Recalled. If passed under the new rule, then the Lt. Governor becomes Governor.
“Most California voters agree it’s time to over haul the state’s recall process — particularly by raising the bar to oust officeholders, according to a new survey.
The poll released Thursday by UC San Diego’s Yankelovich Center found more than two-thirds of the electorate back some form of change, with 40 percent supporting “major” alterations — a 10-point increase compared to the findings of a post-2003 recall survey. A majority of those polled said the Legislature should create an independent commission that puts a proposal before voters. A clear majority of Democrats said they would support unspecified changes, while Republicans were split.
The survey of about 2,800 registered voters was conducted the week of the recall election, Sept. 13-16, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The most popular idea included in the survey was a constitutional amendment specifying the justifications for removal, such as illegal activity. Today, California voters can qualify recalls for any reason.”
New poll: Californians are ready to change the recall process
By JEREMY B. WHITE, Politico, 9/23/21
Most California voters agree it’s time to over haul the state’s recall process — particularly by raising the bar to oust officeholders, according to a new survey.
The poll released Thursday by UC San Diego’s Yankelovich Center found more than two-thirds of the electorate back some form of change, with 40 percent supporting “major” alterations — a 10-point increase compared to the findings of a post-2003 recall survey. A majority of those polled said the Legislature should create an independent commission that puts a proposal before voters. A clear majority of Democrats said they would support unspecified changes, while Republicans were split.
The survey of about 2,800 registered voters was conducted the week of the recall election, Sept. 13-16, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The most popular idea included in the survey was a constitutional amendment specifying the justifications for removal, such as illegal activity. Today, California voters can qualify recalls for any reason.
Majorities also backed raising the number of signatures needed to trigger a recall from its current threshold of 12 percent of the votes cast in the prior election and creating a runoff between the top two vote-getters among the replacement candidates.
The background: In the days since Gov. Gavin Newsom crushed a recall effort, Democratic elected officials have made clear they intend to put changes to the recall system before voters, calling the current framework undemocratic. The chairs of the Legislature’s elections committees plan to hold informational hearings and Secretary of State Shirley Weber said she would work with lawmakers to move a constitutional amendment to the 2022 ballot.
Democrats urging changes have assailed the replacement process, which allows the candidate with the most votes to become governor even if more people vote to keep the incumbent. A majority of those surveyed said they would support atop-two runoff, while about 49 percent of voters said they supported holding separate elections for the recall and the replacement process, and 43 percent endorsed having the lieutenant governor succeed a recalled governor.
Letting a recall-targeted governor run as a replacement candidate was unpopular, with just 39 percent supporting it and 46 percent opposing the idea.
Replacement shifts: Far fewer recall voters weighed in on a replacement candidate, the second question on the ballot, than on the up-or-down recall question. The latest vote tally shows some five million voters left the question blank, as Newsom and Democrats urged them to do.
The UC San Diego poll found that voters who chose a replacement candidate were wealthier and significantly likelier to be Republican. The share of Republican voters jumped from 26.5 percent on the recall question to 39.3 percent on the replacement question, while the Democratic share plummeted from 52 percent to 36.6 percent.
Republican skepticism: Republicans were also disillusioned by the result. UC San Diego polled voters in the days just before and immediately after Newsom’s victory. There was a seven-point decline in Republicans reporting they were “very satisfied” with California’s recall process after the election, while Democrats saw a 10-point jump.
The share of Republicans who believed there was “significant fraud” in the election also leaped 10 points after voting concluded. With some GOP leaders and pundits alleging fraud even before Election Day, Republican voters were more likely to believe there had been fraud than to believe the results “accurately reflect the vote.”
