Republican are growing almost everywhere, except in California. The California Republican Party has not had a registration drive since March, 2013. In 2016 the Democrats had 3.5 more registrants than the Republican. In the past six years that has GROWN to over a five million registrant difference—1.5 million larger margin in just six years. Imagine is we continue to do nothing for another six years!
Why is this important. The larger the registration spread between Dems and GOP’ers, the harder it is to get quality candidates that can raise money. Literally the reason there are so few candidates with money is because the State Party ended voter registration drives—hence the 1.5 million MORE Dems than GOP’ers in the last six years in California—while most of the nation has grown the Republican Party, the California Republican has shrunk the Party in California.
New voter registration data show GOP making major gains and surpassing Democrats in key states
by Sarah Westwood, Washington Examiner, 7/19/20
EXCLUSIVE — Republicans are attracting more registered voters in states where Democrats have long held a registration advantage —reflecting one of many ways in which the current political landscape is tilting toward the GOP.
Registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Florida, Kentucky, and West Virginia after years of trailing, according to data from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics that was shared first with the Washington Examiner.
Republicans now lead in registered voters in 12 states, compared to 10 states and Washington D.C., where Democrats have the plurality of registered voters. Self-proclaimed independents have the edge in nine states.
Democrats still have the overall advantage in numbers nationwide, in part because the 31 states that track party registration favor Democratic strongholds. But the new data reveal voter registration trends are continuing to move toward Republicans in a number of other places where Democrats have long enjoyed comfortable leads.
Washington Examiner
“I do think that voter registration can be a lagging indicator,”Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told the Washington Examiner.
“No one thought of Kentucky and West Virginia as Democratic-leaning states anymore, even though … the Democrats still had a registration advantage there,” he said. “I think what you’re seeing is that party registration is coming a little bit more into alignment with actual partisanship than it had in the past.”
In Kentucky, the shift in party registration has been dramatic. Democrats had over 186,000 more registered voters in the state as recently as June 2020. By this month, they trailed Republicans in registration numbers by 2,491 voters.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) celebrated the historic moment last week when the decadeslong Democratic voter registration advantage was erased.
“Today is a day I never thought would happen. After decades of hard work and grassroots efforts across the commonwealth, registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats in Kentucky,” McConnell said.
In Florida, registered Republicans overtook Democrats in the fall, a milestone cheered by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), solidifying the state’s transition in recent cycles from a swing state to a reliably red stronghold.
And in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide, the registration numbers last year caught up to the state’s evolution into a deeply red stronghold.
The Republican National Committee celebrated the gains on Wednesday as a signal of GOP momentum heading into November.
“The shift in enthusiasm for the GOP starts with our strong candidates and our message and is complemented by the RNC’s state-of-the-art, data-driven ground game,” said Nathan Brand, spokesman for the RNC. “Republicans are doing the work where it counts, by investing in communities and reaching voters where they are at.”
Data show a decline in the nationwide share of registered Democrats since the party’s peak in 2008, which coincides with an increase in the share of registered Republicans. As of July, there are 120.8 million registered voters in the 31 states that track party affiliation — 47.1 million (39%) of them are Democrats, 35.7 million (30%) are Republicans, and 33.9 million (28%) are independents. The rest are registered as supporters of a third party.
UVA Center for Politics
That’s a big dip since 2008, amid the Obama presidency, when Democrats had 44% of the nationwide share of registered voters, held the party registration lead in 15 states plus Washington, D.C., and had nearly 13 million more registered voters than Republicans. Now, the Democrats’ party advantage nationally has eroded to 11.4 million voters.
The Democratic National Committee said it will continue to invest in voter registration efforts.
“Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted,” DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “That’s why we’re making historic investments in the midterm elections, including in voter registration, and will continue to remind voters across the country of the contrast between Democrats and the MAGA Republican Party that is pushing a national abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest, put forward plans that could raise taxes and gut Social Security and Medicare, and is doing everything they can to stand in the way of lowering costs for American families.”
Even in states where Democrats retain a registration advantage over Republicans, the GOP has momentum in some places.
Republicans have chipped away at the Democratic registration edge in North Carolina, for example, steadily closing the gap in a state that has more reliably sent Republicans to Washington in recent years.
After reaching a high-water mark in Pennsylvania during the Obama years, Democrats have watched the number of registered Republicans in the state eat into their advantage.
Despite the Republican gains, Democrats still have significantly more registered voters nationwide than the GOP because solid-blue states like California and New York have party registration, whereas GOP stronghold states like Texas do not.
“What distorts the picture more is that not every state does voter registration this way,” Kondik said. “There are just more blue states that actually do voter registration by party.”
Far more factors than rising voter registration have given Republicans cause for optimism as the midterm elections creep closer.
President Joe Biden’s falling approval ratings, persistent inflation, and Democratic inaction have all contributed to a shift in polling that suggests Republicans are on track to unseat dozens of House Democrats, and even some in the Senate, in November.
