THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM©
If Donald Trump announced he was going to run for President in 2024 tomorrow, the GOP race would be over. The only discussion would be who is his best choice for Vice President. Yes, the Romney/Christie anti-Trump folks would throw in a candidate to try to make it interesting. Waste of time and money. BTW, as of January 1, he had raised $125 million for a 2024 race, if he wants to use the money for that purpose. He would have, overnight, a national precinct operation and no problem getting media. The better news he could show how his policies made America better, while Biden and the Democrats are collapsing our nation.
“Some argue that the national Republican Party would be most benefitted if Trump does not run for the President relying on the truisms discussed above. That narrative has factual problems. Again, let us look at Texas as an example. South Texas, heavily Hispanic, has been reliably Democrat for a long time. That is shifting, and part of that shift, is very much about President Trump. South Texas counties that Hillary Clinton won by 20 to 30 points in 2016 were either very close or went for Donald Trump in 2020. If Donald Trump is able to build a coalition that includes Hispanics in this country, he will be almost impossible to defeat.
Donald Trump is “The Elephant In The Room” ©
Michael Schroeder, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views 3/7/22
A great deal of sound and fury signifying nothing, has been expended decrying Donald Trump’s presence in and dominance of the national Republican Party.
So, let’s get some of the standard truisms out of the way. These include that President Trump is too polarizing, not presidential enough, and alienates middle of the road voters, especially suburban women. While there is some factual basis for all of that, it ignores a couple of obvious truths. You can go broke predicting Donald Trump’s actions or betting against him. Many people thought he was not going to win in 2016. The chattering class was wrong because they ignored certain realities that should not be ignored this time around.
As to the 2016 election, it is almost impossible for a party to hold the Presidency after an eight year incumbency. A large segment of blue collar workers in 2016 had been left out under President Obama. When they were voting in 2016, they didn’t just want to change the chess pieces on the board, they wanted to kick the chess board over. Donald Trump understood that and he was the instrument of their disaffection.
Donald Trump is the most dominant current or former president in U.S. history as to the national Republican Party. Not a bold statement, fact, but why? Part of it is because he cares more. Many past and current Republican presidents really did not focus on or care much about the national Republican Party. Trump is different. He has made sure to support people who were loyal to him and punish those who were not.
The State of Texas is a perfect example. An early supporter of President Trump was conservative firebrand, Daniel Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas. Most Lieutenant Governors, initially including this Lieutenant Governor, are little known figures, either statewide or nationally. Trump rewarded his loyalty by making him the conduit for Trump’s endorsements in Texas. Texas just held its Primary and virtually every Trump supported candidate either won their primary or is in a run-off Primary. This caused Patrick to now have influence in Texas rivaling that of very popular Texas Governor, Greg Abbott. Take this example in Texas and multiply it times 50 states and you begin to see the national Republican Party network that President Trump has built.
Other factors that have helped to buoy his popularity after being defeated for re-election are the national Democratic’s Party’s dramatic shift to the left. President Biden ran as someone who would govern as a largely moderate consensus builder, given his long time as a deal maker in the U.S. Senate. A majority of the American people believed him. His surprising adoption of the entire left wing woke agenda has polarized the country, tanked his approval ratings, and left very little room for the never Trumpers in the Republican Party. The Russian/Ukraine situation has also positively affected Donald Trump’s public regard because a majority of the American people believe that President Biden is too weak when it comes to Russia.
This brings us to two final questions. Will Donald Trump run, and if he does, will he win the Primary and/or the General Election. The second question is it in the best interest of the Republican Party that he does run?
The answer to the first question is fairly clear. If Donald Trump runs for president again, he will be the Republican nominee. In his speech last week at CPAC, he certainly sounded like a candidate. Sometimes, former elected officials like to flirt with this, as a way of feeding their egos. The Republican hope is that whatever he decides to do, he does it sooner rather than later. While he is a potential presidential candidate, he sucks all of the air out of the room for other potential candidates who are very capable of beating Biden. They will not receive any real attention while Trump is viewed as the dominant candidate. While it is too early to tell, given the deep disapproval that voters currently have towards Biden, Trump would probably win the General Election match-up with him.
Some argue that the national Republican Party would be most benefitted if Trump does not run for the President relying on the truisms discussed above. That narrative has factual problems. Again, let us look at Texas as an example. South Texas, heavily Hispanic, has been reliably Democrat for a long time. That is shifting, and part of that shift, is very much about President Trump. South Texas counties that Hillary Clinton won by 20 to 30 points in 2016 were either very close or went for Donald Trump in 2020. If Donald Trump is able to build a coalition that includes Hispanics in this country, he will be almost impossible to defeat.
Donald Trump is the Elephant In The Room© that will dominate this election either by running or very much controlling who the Republican nominee will be.
Respectfully submitted,
Michael J. Schroeder
Michael Schroeder served as the Chairman of the California Republican Party and President of the California Republican Assembly. He did not work on either of President Trump’s campaigns, having served on Senator Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign.
