Oakland, like San Fran is dead. The Mayor needs to find someone, quickly, to give the eulogy? Maybe Gavin could do that.
Crime, failed schools, drugs everywhere—that is Oakland of today. It is a war zone.
“She points to a Walgreens right by the 12th St/Oakland BART station and a deli close by.
“They have security guards around all the time because so many people kept stealing or trying to rob them. There are many others in the city too, but these are just the closest. Oh, and go inside that Walgreens, and you’ll have cashiers behind security panels and your items going under them like you’re in an inner-city gas station. A lot of prospective business owners see that that is the situation here and say ‘no thanks.’”
“And you’ll see a lot of these store fronts are covered up and without lease signs. Yeah, they’re just not being bothered with. And because they aren’t for lease, they’re not really vacant. Or they’re just leased out very short term, and technically not vacant. Or there is a string of short term tenants in a year. If you included them in the vacancy rate, you’d see it on the same level as office vacancy most likely. Honestly, look at this like a mall. Mall vacancies are usually measured just by empty stores at any given time. Do that to Oakland right now, and we’d be at office levels. At least. It’s a very hidden thing, but you have eyes and can see all the open storefronts and lease signs. And remember, we are just downtown. A lot of areas of the city are not doing as good. Think about that.”
Want to lose money and maybe your life? Go to Oakland. It is the Disneyland of crime.
The Empty Storefronts Of Downtown Oakland
The Globe visits Oakland and sees the stunning retail vacancies of downtown
By Evan Symon, California Globe, 3/28/24 https://californiaglobe.com/fr/the-empty-storefronts-of-downtown-oakland/
Visiting Downtown Oakland can be a sobering experience. At some points it is full of life, with shopkeepers stepping out for a moment to enjoy the day or customers coming in for the lunch rush. But walk a block away, and it is dead. And walking through there is a curious mix of empty storefronts sometimes going three or four stores in a row, then a restaurant, maybe a clothes store, then another closed store.
Retail vacancy is a hard thing to really track with leases expiring, stores suddenly closing, new “pop up” stores and other variables severely affecting just how many open places there are.
Neighboring San Francisco is currently around a 6% retail vacancy. But most people living there will report the same phenomenon as Oakland, with a lot more open stores than 6%. In 2015, Oakland had under a 3% retail vacancy, and in 2019, had only 2%. Today it is sitting at 7%.
Of course, this isn’t bad as office vacancy. Right now Oakland is at about 20%, with San Francisco approaching 37%. The excuses for both retail and office rates are the same too: Economic uncertainty, high inflation, rising insurance costs, more people working from home, the rise of AI and automation, the continued rise of e-commerce, the rising crime rate, high rental costs, and businesses still adjusting to a post-COVID climate have all been named as factors.
But when going around Oakland, it seemed higher than 7%. All of those above factors have to create an above 7% retail vacancy rate. So let’s dive in.
“It is way above 7%,” said a Bay Area real estate advisor “Jan” to the Globe on Thursday, joining this reporter on a walk around the city. “It is way emptier than that. So, some places just take their rental property off the market for awhile for a variety of reasons. That’s why many are painted over or have slick artwork covering them. And this is a common tactic. A lot of cities actually commission artists to paint over abandoned or for lease storefronts, and malls and even airports use this to cover up untaken places.”
“But in Oakland it is especially notable because it is everywhere. The more expensive places have those clear windows with the for lease signs in them, but the idea still holds.”
When asked on which street to begin on, as to not “cherry pick” the best streets to have the most vacancies, Jan laughed.
“Just pick a street here and we’ll see vacancies within a block.”
Sure enough, each block had, on average 2-3 store vacancies, not to mention many office vacancy signs. In some places, there were entire rows of open store fronts in prominent areas.
“Look at that. Right next to a BART station, next to the Tribune Tower, and on a busy street. Rent is probably on the higher side, but a good business owner could make it work. And no one is there.”
Later on, when going around 12th Street, Center Walk, and Clay Street, restaurants getting lunch rush businesses were broken up by strings of empty store fronts.”
“This is the way the market is right now to some extent, but it also is a very strong visual reminder of just how far many cities around here have fallen. East Bay, San Francisco, San Jose. This sort of thing is everywhere. Get a tenant for one, and another one or two fall open. We have seen more black owned businesses here and new places are still opening up, so it isn’t dead. But we have a lot of businesses needing security guards either outside or inside too.”
She points to a Walgreens right by the 12th St/Oakland BART station and a deli close by.
“They have security guards around all the time because so many people kept stealing or trying to rob them. There are many others in the city too, but these are just the closest. Oh, and go inside that Walgreens, and you’ll have cashiers behind security panels and your items going under them like you’re in an inner-city gas station. A lot of prospective business owners see that that is the situation here and say ‘no thanks.’”
“And you’ll see a lot of these store fronts are covered up and without lease signs. Yeah, they’re just not being bothered with. And because they aren’t for lease, they’re not really vacant. Or they’re just leased out very short term, and technically not vacant. Or there is a string of short term tenants in a year. If you included them in the vacancy rate, you’d see it on the same level as office vacancy most likely. Honestly, look at this like a mall. Mall vacancies are usually measured just by empty stores at any given time. Do that to Oakland right now, and we’d be at office levels. At least. It’s a very hidden thing, but you have eyes and can see all the open storefronts and lease signs. And remember, we are just downtown. A lot of areas of the city are not doing as good. Think about that.”
Finally, we end at the City Hall where she looks up at the California state flag being bunched up on the flag pole, barely moving in the wind.
“We can’t get stores or offices to work. And look, we can’t even get the flags to work.”
Updated Bay Area office and retail vacancy figures for Q2 are due to start coming in sometime in June.
